A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that polarised the country and unleashed disorder, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate even with the basics. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer supports unity or the status quo. Each writes two pieces that seek impartiality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and social figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass national emblems, levies, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented O’Toole. "Debate implies an recognition of the notion that there might be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens report they support unity but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a feckless official who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate points, he said. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has got valuable insights to acquire from the other's positions."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
